Is there more gold to mine in tech?

200910232335.jpgI’m not sure why I’m so mesmerized by Windows 7. Maybe it’s because I’m hopeful that Microsoft’s effort will once again drive lots of sales for the tech sector.

I know that this sounds strange and perhaps unbelievable coming from a Mac fanboy. Sure the iPhone has driven lots of new revenue. But it’s not like the old days. Lots of small–if not individual–development shops are making money. However, software is a “free” web site or downloaded from the Apple AppStore for hundreds of pennies, not hundreds of dollars.

The unemployment rate in Silicon Valley is near 12%. Tech investments are down. Fortune writer Adam Lashinsky reports that the biggest and brightest VCs are struggling to find a way to generate the returns of the 90’s, leaving the VC leaders like Sequoia and Kleiner Perkins to question if the “best days” are behind them. As I considered my start in tech in relationship to the rollercoaster returns over that past 17+ years, I’ve seen peaks and valleys.

I’m looking forward to another ride up!


Healthcare and biotech? It’s possible, but with all the uncertainty swirling around the government of “change,” it’s hard to predict. What about the Enterprise? I imagine that corporate IT will continue to push their investments long and longer. Software is more bloatware than ever before. Just implementing technology on the hope of increased productivity is not going to cut it.

I believe that mobile Internet will continue to drive new revenue. Alternative power has to be an area of growth. Finally the migration from traditional media and entertainment moving into a digital home is likely to drive an exchange of money from consumers pockets. These are the places that I’m watching.

And as for Windows 7? I’m encouraged by what I’m seeing.

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