I know that this sounds strange and perhaps unbelievable coming from a Mac fanboy. Sure the iPhone has driven lots of new revenue. But it’s not like the old days. Lots of small–if not individual–development shops are making money. However, software is a “free” web site or downloaded from the Apple AppStore for hundreds of pennies, not hundreds of dollars.

The unemployment rate in Silicon Valley is near 12%. Tech investments are down. Fortune writer Adam Lashinsky reports that the biggest and brightest VCs are struggling to find a way to generate the returns of the 90′s, leaving the VC leaders like Sequoia and Kleiner Perkins to question if the “best days” are behind them. As I considered my start in tech in relationship to the rollercoaster returns over that past 17+ years, I’ve seen peaks and valleys.

I’m looking forward to another ride up!

Healthcare and biotech? It’s possible, but with all the uncertainty swirling around the government of “change,” it’s hard to predict. What about the Enterprise? I imagine that corporate IT will continue to push their investments long and longer. Software is more bloatware than ever before. Just implementing technology on the hope of increased productivity is not going to cut it.

I believe that mobile Internet will continue to drive new revenue. Alternative power has to be an area of growth. Finally the migration from traditional media and entertainment moving into a digital home is likely to drive an exchange of money from consumers pockets. These are the places that I’m watching.

And as for Windows 7? I’m encouraged by what I’m seeing.

Even with all the Windows fanfare, I’m still happy to say that I have 4 Macs, 3 on Snow Leopard.

Finally, over the years I’ve seen the OS changes come and go. As an “old-timer” who remembers the power of cd, xcopy, and other robust OS commands, I was happy to see Windows come along. Amy was alway a Mac person–she’s always “thunk” different. I welcome Windows 7 to join the family.

I must admit that this latest commercial from Apple made me chuckle. Enjoy.

• to be perfectionists [well, maybe]
• to use notebooks [since 1994ish]
• to use teeth whitening products [okay]
• to pay for downloaded music [I got better after AllofMP3 shut down]
• to go to Starbucks [for meetings and hanging]
• care about “green” products and the environment [yes for me]
• to own a hybrid car [Amy's getting a Toyota Prius and we're not excited about $3.50 a gallon in an SUV that gets only 13-18 miles per gallon. It's economics for me and a desire to keep money in the USA vs. send it to the Middle East.]

Microsoft Office has been the LAST of the major software applications used by the masses to support the new Intel processor. I’ve been waiting for this release since April 2006. I like what I see. It’s fresh. Modern. Feature rich. The only complaint I have so far: My first crash happened only 1 hour into playing with the Suite, and 15 minutes into playing with Word. .

In the mean time, the alternatives are throwing blows at Redmond’s new hope. This ad from Apple has appeared online at select tech publications. It’s a hard-core comic attack by Apple. As with all political wars, I wonder if badmouthing the competitor will come back to haunt Apple.

First, carriers have us over the barrel on what functionality the device will support (e.g., I’d try a BlackBerry Curve but ATT has removed WiFi support). Additionally, carriers offer similar yet different data and voice networks (CDMA/TDMA/GSM), requiring some efort.

The device manufacturers have to pick an OS to drive their machine. The OS has to work on a variety of devices and needs to be flexible, manage multiple radio frequencies/types (quad-band, Bluetooth, WiFi, etc.). Finally, it has to work for a consumer. It’s nearly impossible to hit a home run with a single device.

Which leads me to Google and Android. From the mouth of Eric Schmidt, “Android is the first truly integrated mobile operating system.” That seems like a bit of a stretch. Yes everyone else talked about it early in the week, but I waited. Which leads me to consider: “Can Google and myriad developers across the wireless industry really create a usable Mobile OS that device manufacturers, carriers, and “consumers” can use?”

It’s true that Andy Rubin has good credentials for the heading the task. The Sidekick had its own cult following. He did something right by nailing a specific target market with a device that hit the core needs of thumb communicating teens and young adults — although the “voice” use looked a bit strange when you had to put the brick up to your head.

Apple may have come close, but many have expressed they couldn’t do it with Rev 1.0 of the iPhone (including the opinion of yours truly). From what I read and hear, lots of users like the user experience, however.

I can’t help but think of Nokia‘s effort with Symbian (and Motorola, and Samsung, and others that have long since dropped off the bandwagon). Symbian is a very capable and powerful OS, but it’s missed the mark somewhere along the line (personally, as I learned from my imported E61, there were way too many steps to do any one thing).

Palm gave up and sold what appeared to be a great head-start OS to Access, long after their head start was passe. Access has yet to do anything other than wave their arms every 6 months with a new announcement in the press telling the world they are still alive — although their product roadmap appears dead.

Now back to David Pogue. In this article, he has a hilarious quote about Microsoft Windows Mobile:

Frankly, Windows Mobile 6 is a mess. Common features require an infinitude of taps and clicks, and the ones you need most are buried in menus. Apparently the Windows Mobile 6 team learned absolutely nothing from Windows Mobile 1, 2, 3, 4 and 5.

So, here’s to Google’s effort at cracking the code on the new OS war: The Mobile OS. Heaven knows that many have lobbed many great suggestions (Peter Rojas at Engadget on Palm OS, David Pogue at The New York Times on Windows Mobile, Walt Mossberg).

Can Apple get it right w/ R2 of the iPhone? Will Apple “truly” open up a SDK that will appease developers (I think if this was here today, Android would be a yawner news).

Will Access ship a killer Linux OS — or will Motorola beat them to the punch with something that gets on to other smart phones?

Will Nokia be left to the low-end, non-smart phone market?

Can RIM continue to dominate the business user segment with their BlackBerry brand that appears to be a strong, yet pretty isolated from the interests of the third-party developer community?

Check back in a year.

I scoffed in the past about the longevity of Facebook and it’s “$Billion” valuation when Yahoo was rumored to be after Facebook. Now it’s $15B. Man was I wrong.

The deal gives Facebook a massive investment for a minority stake. The investors that have money in Facebook today must be writhing their hands on getting this baby into the public market. And if I had options as an employee….ummm.

Now Microsoft is is begging students to pay just $59.95. That’s a $620 discount off the retail price of $680 or a 91% savings. That throws out the standard pricing models the rest of the software industry use to calculate value. And what’s included in this “Ultimate Package:”

* Word
* Excel
* PowerPoint
* Oulook (with Business Contact Manager)
* Accounting Express
* Publisher
* Access
* Infopath
* Groove
* OneNote

Is this another sign that the monopolistic power in Redmond is nervous about Google’s and others web-based apps that allow today’s students to collaborate and work on any computer at any location on or off campus — or even on mobile devices like the iPhone? Maybe so.

Only about one third of IE users have adopted IE7 compared to 85% of FF users who have adopted the latest version of the browser, FF2. Significantly, FF2 has a greater market share than IE7 in 17 European territories, while IE7 is ahead of FF2 in 16 territories.

Been a Firefox (or Mozilla’s Camino browser) user for the past 18 months myself. Go get ‘em.